Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
