Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
